Americans Upbeat About Housing

 

Realtor
Brenda Borum
Realtor
Keller Williams WVC
Phone: 805-844-6183
Lic: CalBRE# 00698082
Email: brenda@brendaborum.com
Website: http://www.BrendaBorum.com
Certified Mortgage Planner
Bob Brenner
Certified Mortgage Planner
Synergy One Lending
NMLS#: 240029
Phone: 805-427-3538
Email: bobbrennerloans@gmail.com
Website: http://www.bobbrennerloans.com

 


 

Rates At a Glance

Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week’s
Potential Volatility
Neutral Neutral Average
(by Sigma Research)

 


 

Realtor Report

Americans upbeat about housing

A recent survey by Digital Risk showed that over half of homeowners believe the housing market in their region and nationwide has improved. It also found that the majority of homeowners (91%) and renters (83%) view home ownership as a good investment. The survey of 1,057 U.S. homeowners and 509 renters was conducted between May 26 and June 2.

Confidence in the housing sector is being driven by a noticeable increase in home values. Eighty-seven percent of homeowners have seen their appraisal values holding or increasing, while just 12% saw a decrease. Sixteen percent saw gains of more than 20% in value.

Barriers to the housing market remain, however. Forty percent of renters said they could not afford the down payment. Insufficient income was cited by 37% of respondents, while 33% stated that they preferred renting to ownership. When asked what would make the decision easier to purchase a home, 40% percent cited debt forgiveness, 36% said a life event such as marriage or children and 31% percent said lower credit requirements would push them into the market.

While homebuyers are upbeat on the housing market, 70% of homeowners and two-thirds of renters indicated they would not be comfortable managing the entire process via a smartphone application. And while two-thirds of homeowners and 59% of renters said they would be willing to complete an application on-line, about half of all respondents said they would prefer to speak to a representative in person during the process.

 


 

This Week’s Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are trending sideways so far today.  Last week the MBS market improved by +20bps.  This was enough to slightly improve mortgage rates or fees.  The market experienced relatively low volatility.

This Week’s Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates this week: 1) Central Bank, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Across the Pond.

1) Central Bank: While we await our own Fed next week, we have two important Central Bank meetings this week. Both on Thursday. The Bank of Japan will hit first in the early morning, important to watch but the markets are not anticipating anything new from them. The biggest event of the week is the European Central Bank policy statement that same morning. This one has some wiggle room. President Mario Draghi made some comments two weeks ago about being close to a point where start to pull back on their bond purchases. This actually started two straight weeks of long bond sell-offs (higher rates). The market will react swiftly to any “hawkish” commentary or policy change from the ECB.

2) Geopolitical:  The second round of Brexit Talks starts this week will dominate the markets internationally. Domestically, Health Care and Tax Reform will get the most attention. It looks like for now Health Care is stuck, but it also looks like momentum and efforts are shifting to getting Tax Reform moving forward. Reduced taxes will be a significant economic stimulus.

3) Across the Pond:  We get some very big releases from the top 5 economies. China – Retail Sales and GDP, Germany – PPI, Eurozone – CPI, Great Brittan – CPI and PPI, Japan – Imports/Exports.

This Week’s Potential Volatility: Average

There’s not a lot of economic data coming out this week that will likely move mortgage rates. Thursday, we could see some volatility due to ECB policy statement noted above.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

 


 

About Bob Brenner

My goal is to provide an uneventful mortgage experience that is so barely noticed from beginning to end that it will be remarkably pleasing at closing. I teach my clients how to use their home loan as a tool in planning, creating, and securing a lasting foundation for long-term wealth.

 


 

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Act. Synergy One Lending, NMLS# 1025894.

 


 

thetbwsgroup 750 Mason Street, Suite 202 Vacaville, CA 85688.

Ventura & Surrounding Area: PRICE INDEX HISTORICAL

A Look Back: How Ventura & Surrounding Area Homes Have Changed in Value – What’s the Risk in Your Market?

Price Index

When it comes to helping your clients make the most important financial decision of their life, your real estate knowledge and guidance is invaluable. This historical price index that details a look back at home valuations over the last year and beyond, will help you provide the important insights your clients are looking for, and a well-rounded picture of the real estate market trends in your area. Use the zip code search above to see price historical data for a specific area of interest.The historical price index for Ventura & Surrounding Area is 6.1% for the last 12 months and -0.1% for the 10-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), according to the latest housing data provided by HouseCanary.

 

The home price index level compared to historical long-term trend is a risk indicator. The greater the price’s distance from long term trend line, the greater the likelihood for a snapback or reversion to the long-term average. When the home price index is significantly above (or below) long-term trend this represents a signal of increased (or decreased) risk.

This predictive analytics report and e-newsletter is part of a new collaboration between HouseCanary and RISMedia in an effort to bring real estate professionals timely and local housing data in thousands of regional and local markets across the U.S. as well as provide RISMedia’s real estate news, information and business development insights of interest to brokers, agents, service providers and professionals serving the U.S. residential real estate industry.

The data provided from zip code and property address searches within each local market is solely provided by HouseCanary. Although the House Canary data has been produced and processed from sources believed to be reliable; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. To review HouseCanary’s full list of terms and conditions, click here. To learn more about HouseCanary’s suite of services, visit HouseCanary.com.
 Property Risk O Meter
info from: RISMedia

New Home Prices and Sales Jump

Realtor
Brenda Borum
Realtor
Keller Williams WVC
Phone: 805-844-6183
Lic: CalBRE# 00698082
Email: brenda@brendaborum.com
Website: http://www.BrendaBorum.com
Certified Mortgage Planner
Bob Brenner
Certified Mortgage Planner
Synergy One Lending
NMLS#: 240029
Phone: 805-465-8937
Email: bobbrennerloans@gmail.com
Website: http://www.bobbrennerloans.com

 


 

Rates At a Glance

Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week’s
Potential Volatility
Neutral Neutral Average
(by Sigma Research)

 


Realtor Report

New Home Prices and Sales JumpSales of newly built, single-family homes in May rose 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units after an upwardly revised April reading, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.So, that is the good news. The bad news? The median sales price jumped 11.5% to $345,800. Supply is still very tight with only 5.3 months of inventory at the current sales pace which means steady upward pressure on future prices.“This month’s report is in line with our forecast, and consistent with solid builder confidence readings,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With more consumers entering the market, further job growth and tight existing home inventory, the new home sector should continue to expand.”Regionally, new home sales increased 13.3 percent in the West and 6.2 percent in the South. Sales fell 10.8 percent in the Northeast and 25.7 percent in the Midwest.

 


This Week’s Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.Rates Currently Trending: NeutralMortgage rates are trending slightly lower so far today.  Last week the MBS market improved by +16 bps.  This may’ve been enough to slightly improve mortgage rates or fees.  Mortgage rates experienced very low volatility throughout the week.This Week’s Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates this week: 1) Geopolitical, 2) Fed and 3) Domestic.

1.) Geopolitical: Across the pond, we have Theresa May teaming up with Northern Ireland to have the support she needs to stay in power and continue with Brexit negotiations which began last week. President Trump is meeting with the leader of India today to discuss trade, but the market focus is on the Senate as they attempt to vote on health care reform this week.

2.) Fed: There is no question that the Fed’s last statement was hawkish and points to another hike this year as well as fewer MBS purchases. But the bond market simply hasn’t come around to buying into that as a real possibility yet particularly given the recent bout of economic data. So, we will continue to pay very close attention to their speeches to see if they begin to shift market sentiment:

  • 06/26 John Williams
  • 06/27 John Williams, Patrick Harker, Janet Yellen and Neel Kashkari
  • 06/29 James Bullard

3.) Domestic: We have a big week for economic data with some big name reports that have the ability to move the needle for mortgage rates. The most important one is Friday’s PCE report which is what the Fed uses as their official inflation gauge. We also have Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence and the final revision to the 1st QTR GDP.

Treasury Auctions:

  • 06/26 2 year note
  • 06/27 5 year note
  • 06/28 7 year note

This Week’s Potential Volatility: Average

A very pivotal week. We have been trading in a very well defined channel for the past two weeks. We actually have an opportunity to break out of that channel for worse mortgage rates this week. That momentum lower can only come from the passage of the Health Care reform in the Senate. IF it is not passed, then we will stay in our current channel.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

 


About Bob Brenner

My goal is to provide an uneventful mortgage experience that is so barely noticed from beginning to end that it will be remarkably pleasing at closing. I teach my clients how to use their home loan as a tool in planning, creating, and securing a lasting foundation for long-term wealth.

 

 


About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Act. Guild Mortgage Company NMLS # 3274.

 


thetbwsgroup 750 Mason Street, Suite 202 Vacaville, CA 85688.

Licensed in California.
Copyright © 2000-2012 Keller Williams ® Realty. A real estate franchise company.
All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. Properties subject to prior sale or rental.